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Create Date: 2008-05-20 16:28:55 | Popularity Level: 649 |
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2008-11-27 01:48:04
JN Preview: Energy Prices To Drag on Inflation in October; Deflation on Radar
(CEP News) Nationwide Japanese inflation is expected to fall from 2.1% to 1.7% in October on cooling energy and food prices, and economists say there is a real risk of deflation in 2009.While headline inflation jumped from 2.0% to 2.3% from June to July on soaring energy prices, it has been leveling off ever since.Matt Robinson, economist with Moody’s economy.com said Japan’s gas prices were 18% below August’s record in October. "This will alleviate a lot of the energy-related inflation pressures," he said.Robinson’s headline inflation forecast is +1.6%, just below the consensus forecast. Core inflation is expected to fall from 2.3% to 1.9%. Japan’s statistics bureau will release inflation figures for October on Friday morning (Thursday night EST).Kyohei Morita, economist with Barclays Capital, said falling gas prices and the declining cost of food will lower October’s inflation print. The effects have "now becoming evident further ’downstream’ (ie, at the retail level)," he said, "perhaps most noticeably at gasoline pumps."Looking ahead, George Worthington, economist with IFR Markets said deflation worries are now in play. "Inflation has well and truly turned the corner in Japan, and already many are starting to worry about a return to deflation which does not seem so far off the mark," he said.Worthington said peaks in Japanese inflation during the summer were never broad-based, but specifically a result of spikes in food and energy prices - now on their way downwards.Worthington said zero inflation in mid-2009 was forecasted by the Bank of Japan in their monetary policy statement last Friday.Economists at DBS agreed deflation fears "cannot be casually dismissed."Gas and energy aren’t the only thing dragging on prices, they said. Demand - another pull force on inflation - is also ebbing, and will pull down prices in times ahead as the economy deteriorates, they said.The report on Friday will also reveal more timely inflation data for Tokyo. November’s headline inflation is forecast to come in at +1.1%, down from +1.2% in October, while the core figure is expected at +1.3%, below October’s +1.5% figure.By Megan Ainscow, mainscow@economicnews.caCEP Newswires - CEP News ? 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.caThe Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News. A copy of CEP News disclaimer can be found at www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/disclaimer. |
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2008-11-27 01:43:13
Australian Third Quarter Capex Slightly Below Forecasts
(CEP News) - Australia’s capital expenditure increased 0.6% in the third quarter, below the 0.8% increase expected by economists and the second quarter’s upwardly revised 7.4% increase.The second quarter figure was initially report at +5.6%, according to the report released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday morning (Wednesday night EST.)Capex for equipment, plants and machinery fell by 2.4% for the quarter while capex for building and structures increased 6.6%.Total capital expenditure is up by 15.9% year over year.By Megan Ainscow, mainscow@economicnews.caCEP Newswires - CEP News ? 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.caThe Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News. A copy of CEP News disclaimer can be found at www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/disclaimer. |
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2008-11-27 01:18:16
Bank of Japan Minutes Show Mizuno Voted Against Rate Cut in October
(CEP News) - Bank of Japan minutes revealed board member Atsushi Mizuno opposed the 20 basis rate cut on October 31st. Mizuno said a cut it wouldn’t have any trickle-down effect on the economy, and advocated boosting fund supplies instead. Nevertheless, all members agreed financial markets were nervous, leading some to say a 20 basis point cut would be a sign of solidarity.The minutes showed concern amongst members over the future in global financial markets and the effect of the appreciating yen on exports.A representative from the Ministry of Finance spoke at the meeting, and asked the members to guide policy flexibly.Board members Miyako Suda, Hidetoshi Kamezaki and Seiji Nakamura pushed for a steeper 25 basis point cut, but lost 5-3 in a vote.The second vote for a softer 20 basis point cut resulted in a tie, and in the end, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa decided the cut would go through.By Megan Ainscow, mainscow@economicnews.caCEP Newswires - CEP News ? 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.caThe Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News. A copy of CEP News disclaimer can be found at www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/disclaimer. |
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2008-11-27 00:13:03
The Day Ahead Canada and U.S.: U.S. Markets Closed for Thanksgiving Holiday
(CEP News) - No data are scheduled for release in North America on Thursday, as U.S. markets will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.By Steve Stecyk, sstecyk@economicnews.ca, edited by Sarah Sussman, ssussman@economicnews.caCEP Newswires - CEP News ? 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.caThe Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News. A copy of CEP News disclaimer can be found at www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/disclaimer. |
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2008-11-27 00:03:03
The Day Ahead Europe and UK: German Unemployment, UK Housing, EU Confidence
(CEP News) - On Thursday, markets will be awaiting the release of German unemployment figures, UK housing as well as European confidence indicators. Markets will be interested in the German jobless rate for November after unexpectedly falling to a 16-year low of 7.5% in the prior month. In the UK, the Nationwide Building Society will publish data on house prices, which are expected to decline further in November to -1.7% month-over-month from the prior -1.4% result.The Italian retailers’ confidence report and the services survey for November will also be released on Thursday. In the prior month, the retailers’ sentiment indicator fell to 105.7. Meanwhile, the services survey dropped to -18 in October.Euro zone M3 money supply growth figures for October are also scheduled for release on Thursday. Current forecasts point to further slowing in the year-over-year growth rate to 8.1% from September’s 8.6% rate. A decline to 8.5% is expected in the three-month average, down 0.4 % from September’s reading.The EU Commission will publish data on its various sentiment indicators for November. Currently, economists expect the EU business climate indicator to worsen to -1.58 from October’s -1.34 reading, while consumer sentiment is forecast to deteriorate further to -25 in November, down one point from the previous month. Economic sentiment is also expected to worsen in the month, with expectations calling for the indicator to decline to 78 in November from 80.4 in October. Following the trend, industrial confidence is expected to fall to -21 from October’s -18 level, while services is likely to lose two points and fall to -8 over the same period.All Times in EST:2:00 DE ILO Unemployment Rate October Exp: 7.1% Prior: 7.1% 2:00 GB Nationwide House prices (M/M) (SA) November Exp: -1.7% Prior: -1.4% 2:00 GB Nationwide House prices (Y/Y) (NSA) November Exp: -15.1% Prior: -14.6%3:30 IT Retailers’ Confidence General November Prior: 105.7 3:30 IT Services Survey November Prior: -18 3:55 DE Unemployment Change November Exp: -5K Prior: -26K 3:55 DE Unemployment Rate (SA) November Exp: 7.5% 4:00 IT Hourly Wages (M/M) October Exp: +0.3% Prior: +0.1% 4:00 IT Hourly Wages (Y/Y) October Exp: +3.9% Prior: +4.1% 4:00 EU European M3 (Y/Y) (SA) October Exp: +8.1% Prior: +8.6% 4:00 EU European M3 3-month average (SA) October +8.5% Prior: +8.9% 5:00 IT Large Company Employment (Y/Y) (NSA) September Prior: -0.5% 5:00 EU Business Climate Indicator November Exp: -1.58 Prior: -1.34 5:00 EU European Consumer Confidence November Exp: -25 Prior: -24 5:00 EU European Economic Confidence November Exp: +78.0 Prior: +80.4 5:00 EU European Industrial Confidence November Exp: -21 Prior: -18 5:00 EU European Services Confidence November Exp: -8 Prior: -6 8:00 DE Business Climate Survey by Industry 13:00 FR Total Jobseekers October Prior: 1957.6 19:01 GB GfK Consumer Confidence Survey November -37 Prior: -36 By Steve Stecyk, sstecyk@economicnews.ca, edited by Nancy Girgis, ngirgis@economicnews.caCEP Newswires - CEP News ? 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.caThe Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News. A copy of CEP News disclaimer can be found at www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/disclaimer. |
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